For the first time in 21 years, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will revise norms for investment portfolios of commercial banks to reflect changes in global standards on valuation and measurement, and progress in the domestic market. This could pave the way for banks to transition to the new accounting standards (Ind-AS). The outstanding investment portfolio of commercial banks was at Rs 45.84 trillion as of November 19 this year.
The central bank's currency management will be critical over the next few months. A weaker rupee could help to revive exports. But, the currency must fall slowly and in controlled fashion, says Devangshu Datta.
India's exports contracted by 22 per cent, the steepest decline in the last three years, to $32.97 billion in June on account of global demand slowdown, especially in the Western markets like the US and Europe. According to the data of the commerce ministry, the trade deficit in June stood at $20.3 billion against $22.07 billion in the same month last year due to a fall in exports and imports. The inbound shipments during the month under review declined by a steep 17.48 per cent to $53.10 billion.
On the sectoral front, rate-sensitive sectors such as Bankex and Auto gained by 1% and 0.7% respectively while BSE Consumer Durables gained 1.4%.
The 30-share Sensex provisionally ended at 15,485.40 down 351.07 points or 2.2% and the 50-share Nifty ended at 4,646.35 down 100 points or 2.1%.
American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley on Thursday sharply cut its India FY23 real GDP growth estimate to 7.9 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. Analysts at the brokerage also raised their inflation forecast to 6 per cent - the upper end of the tolerance band for the RBI - and flagged stagflation risks because of the ongoing events. "We believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbate external risks and impart a stagflationary impulse to the economy," they said. It can be noted that stagflation involves a stagnancy in output or growth, coupled with high inflation.
Armed with necessary macro and micro growth drivers, India is on its way to becoming the fastest growing major economy in the world, a finance ministry report said. Rapid vaccination and teeming festivities will push India's ongoing recovery resulting in narrowing of demand-supply mismatches and greater employment opportunities, as per the monthly Economic Review prepared by the ministry.
After staging a strong recovery from COVID-induced slowdown in 2021, India's exports are likely to extend the growth story to the New Year also on increased demand in the global markets, boost in domestic manufacturing due to production-linked incentive schemes and implementation of some interim trade pacts. Expectations of positive growth in the country's exports are also backed up by the outlook of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) which predicts a 4.7 per cent expansion in the global merchandise trade volume in 2022. Exporters believe that the outbound shipments would cross $400 billion mark in this fiscal going by the current momentum and may reach $475 billion in 2022-23.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will stay away from changing key rates - including the reverse repo rate - this fiscal in the backdrop of Omicron. However, it will continue to shape the rate movements through liquidity market operations. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic advisor, State Bank of India, said whether Omicron surge or not, there is not going to be any hike this year. However, the central bank may continue to shape rates through market operations.
Pegging the cost of the covid-19 lockdown at USD 120 billion (approximately Rs 9 lakh crores) or 4 per cent of the GDP, analysts on Wednesday sharply cut their growth estimates and stressed on the need to announce an economic package. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which is scheduled to announce its first bi-monthly policy review on April 3, is set to deliver a deep rate cuts and it should also be assumed that the fiscal deficit targets will be breached, analysts said.
Exactly a fortnight ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) next monetary policy review, a key market indicator of interest rates - the overnight indexed swap (OIS) - suggests that the central bank may tighten policy by 35 basis points and then refrain from further rate hikes. RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra recently described the OIS as the primary instrument for hedging interest rate risk in India. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI will meet on December 5-7.
India's benchmark index, Sensex ended on a flat note after a volatile trading session as investors braced for the US Federal Reserve policy meeting with caution.
His visit to India followed a few cancelled plans since he took office in July 2019 due to the coronavirus pandemic crisis, with the two leaders holding several virtual talks and eventually meeting in person on the sidelines of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow last November.
The Sensex ended down 134 points at 28,559 and the Nifty ended 35 points lower at 8,554
Markets closed the day in green on favourable domestic factors,
The rupee on Tuesday recovered from its all-time intra day low of 77.79 to close higher by 7 paise on a stellar rally in domestic stock markets. After opening lower at 77.67, the local unit plunged further to its all-time intra-day low of 77.79 due to a spike in crude oil prices and disappointing macroeconomic data. However, a strong rally in domestic equities helped the rupee rebound and close at 77.48 (provisional), showing net gains of 7 paise over the last close of 77.55. The forex market was closed on Monday on account of Buddha Purnima.
Markets fell further in noon trades amid profit taking in FMCG majors and oil and gas shares.
The visit, which is expected around April 22, is long overdue after Johnson was forced to cancel planned visits to India twice last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
'Das is friendly, but he finally does what he does. The quality of engagement is very good.'
Other gainers include ONGC, Bajaj Auto, Kotak Bank, TCS, Tata Steel, Axis Bank, Maruti, HDFC and HUL, surging up to 3.03 per cent.
RBI's unique focus on WPI inflation is misguided even as demand-driven factors have become relatively less important.
He was most recently credited as one of the brains behind labour law reforms in Rajasthan
Asian Development Bank on Wednesday lowered India's economic growth forecast for FY2019 to 5.1 per cent on slowing job prospects, rural distress exacerbated by poor harvest and credit crunch. Growth in FY2020 is likely to recover thanks to this support, low oil prices, and a weakening rupee, but risks to the projections remain tilted to the downside, it said on India.
The 30-share S&P BSE Sensex ended up 130 points at 25,400 and the Nifty50 rose 46 points to close at 7,759.
The dollar's gains against other currencies overseas and a lower opening in the domestic equity market also put pressure on the local unit, forex dealers said.
While RBI may cut rates by 25 basis points in the February policy review, global monetary policies hold the key to much of the financial assets flow in 2017
The markets will remain choppy ahead of RBI policy.
The dollar-rupee rate could move in the opposite direction if dollar policy rates rise and the FPIs sell in December, says Devangshu Datta.
Out of 30 key export sectors, as many as 22 showed negative growth in September.
India is an 'extraordinarily important' economy and an 'important partner' of Canada in a range of sectors including fighting climate change and creating economic growth, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Sunday.
Banks, real-estate sectors lead gains.
Former Nepalese foreign minister Ramesh Nath Pandey observed that the current situation is not encouraging for India-Nepal ties, saying the "present leaders" created irritants in the relationship in the past.
The rupee appreciated by three paise to close at one-week high of 60.81 against the US dollar in the previous session on sustained dollar selling by exporters and capital inflows.
India is not so keen to co-operate with the US on IPR related probe.
The Indian position on the Russia-Ukraine war and the unconditional treaty between China and Russia appear to have caused some ripples in India-US relations and led to a reappraisal of India's usefulness to the US in the eventuality of a conflict with China, notes Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.
'At a time when the entire India-US relationship needs to be defined by President Trump and Prime Minister Modi, a fresh look at the liability issue has become urgent,' says Ambassador T P Sreenivasan, former Governor for India at the IAEA.
Dispute over IPR was a bone of contention in bilateral ties till a couple of months ago.
Centre mulls strategy to ensure powers given to the agencies are not misused.
Forex dealers said besides increased dollar selling by exporters, strength in other currencies against the American currency overseas also supported the rupee but a lower opening of the domestic equity market capped the gains.
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